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fairly broad improvement in the annual rates of change in home prices,” David M. Blitzer, chairman of the index committee at S&P Indices, said in a statement.

In his statement, Blitzer added: “While we have now seen four consecutive months of generally increasing prices, we do know that we are still far from a sustained recovery.”

Housing market problem No. 1, in Vandell’s estimation: supply and demand.

“We have an excess supply situation,” Vandell said.

In short, there are more sellers than buyers. And part of that problem is many people can’t qualify for a loan, Vandell added.

“On the sales side, part of the problem is that even though interest rates are at historically low levels, you have stricter lending guidelines,” Vandell said, adding, “there are a number of folks out there who can’t refinance.”

And those who can afford the minimum 20% down payment required to buy a home nowadays, and if they have a golden credit report, have very little interest in buying now thanks to low expectations of appreciation in the price of homes for some time to come.

“I don’t see any movement toward significant appreciation until the market comes into balance, and I don’t see that for another two or three years or so.”

Kerry Vandell

UCI professor

“There’s a lot of lack of consumer confidence out there and a lack of one’s confidence in their employment situation,” Vandell said. “Until their situation is more certain, I think they’re going to be holding off.”

But Vandell has some good news for the Orange County market. The professor, like many real estate experts on the record about the area’s housing market, believes Orange County is better poised for recovery than much of the rest of the nation.

“I think Orange County is in better shape than the country on average,” he said. “It has a restricted supply side that is very costly and few new housing starts. It’s not like Dallas or Houston.”

Got an interesting real estate story to tell? Email djergler@gmail.com.